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    DOWNLOAD CONCLUSIONS

    A world in disorder

    The La Toja-Vínculo Atlántico Forum once again turns its attention to the uncertainties that characterise the current moment. The challenges we have highlighted in previous editions remain; populism, issues of growth and equity, the radical transformation brought about by the development of artificial intelligence, and the crisis in multilateralism are phenomena which, far from disappearing, are exerting a growing influence on our societies.

    Our theme for this new edition, ‘A world in disarray’, may seem a sombre expression, but it merely reflects the intensity of the transformations we are witnessing. A world in disarray refers to the dizzying changes taking place, but it also points to the absence of moral certainties to help us navigate this situation. Wherever we turn our gaze, we encounter a disturbing reality: the rise of illiberal policies and parties that scorn the broad consensuses upon which our well-being was built over decades, as well as the limitations of governments in tackling reforms that guarantee stable growth or in responding to the most pressing social problems. The great powers’ disregard for the old rules-based international order is a cause for concern, as is technological development that is insensitive to the fundamental values of human dignity.

    The world today is in disarray, yes. But that does not mean we are irrevocably condemned to a worse future. Our commitment and the dialogue we propose through the La Toja-Vínculo aim to help lay the foundations for a new order that represents another step forward in the history of human progress.

    Our primary focus is the state of the Atlantic Bond, a historic alliance that forms part of our core ideology, even though it is not currently experiencing its finest hour. Beyond the changing political circumstances, we remain committed to the enduring relevance of this bond. Europe and the Americas share far more than just a common defence or privileged trade relations. The foundations and principles of this Western alliance must be preserved as the best guarantee for tackling the challenges we face.

    And amongst these challenges, the war in Ukraine stands out above all others; it is an existential issue for the invaded country and for European democracies as a whole. In the battered and heroic Ukraine, using truly revolutionary military technologies, a conflict is being waged that will largely determine the security of the European continent and its defence model for the future. European countries, so often criticised in other circumstances, have managed to take on the leading role that Washington relinquished in the name of solidarity with the Ukrainian people. Despite this, Ukraine is no longer perceived as a burden on the European Union, but rather as the continent’s most agile and effective military power, an indispensable partner in any approach to our future defence.

    Meanwhile, the US is heading towards mid-term elections that are shaping up to be the most decisive in recent years. The hyperbolic rhetoric of the Trumpist model and its adventurism in foreign policy face the inescapable challenge of pitting propaganda against the actual results of its administration. Trump administration suffers, like so many others in the developed world, from the curse of the word ‘affordability’ – the constant loss of real purchasing power amongst the middle classes. The global economic debate is once again turning towards industrial policies as the main driver of the quality jobs that are so sorely missed today. The new industrial policy goes beyond traditional boundaries to include new sectors such as construction, agriculture, tourism and cities, and is emerging as a powerful tool for territorial cohesion. Today, all regional governments are competing to create, within their territories, new ecosystems of innovation and competitiveness based on this new concept of industrial policy.

    All these debates are also shaped by the development of Artificial Intelligence, a global phenomenon whose full extent remains unknown. The application of the almost unlimited capabilities of this technological development raises ethical, economic, social and strategic challenges. It is imperative to ask, as Pope Leo XIV did in his encyclical *Magnifica Humanitas*, about the moral and humanistic limits that should define the deployment of Artificial Intelligence, which is now reaching its coming of age. Much of this vast global conversation boils down to a major debate with no clear answer: who is to ensure that ethical limits are placed on these formidable capabilities – public authorities with increasingly autocratic tendencies, or the private sector, which obeys only the rules of the market?

    Whilst these debates mount up in Western societies, Spain is experiencing a situation of intractable political deadlock. The majority that brought the Prime Minister to power refuses to reaffirm the confidence necessary for him to push through his government’s initiatives, yet at the same time refuses to withdraw that confidence through the mechanisms provided for in the Constitution. Whatever the date on which the next general election is called, the next edition of the La Toja-Vínculo Atlántico Forum will take place against a new political backdrop. We are, therefore, faced with an opportunity to reflect on the particular circumstances that have defined this unprecedented parliamentary term.

    This world in disarray, which we acknowledge as the starting point for the debates at the La Toja-Vínculo Atlántico Forum, is not an invitation to pessimism but to determination. It is not our current doubts and fears that will define our future, but rather the clarity and effectiveness of the solutions we are able to devise and put into practice. Solutions that can only come from dialogue and a willingness to reach an understanding – something that has always been one of the hallmarks of the La Toja-Vínculo Atlántico Forum.
    Conclusions

    Explore the key insights
    from this edition

    1. Liberal democracy, the separation of powers, pluralism and the rule of law were identified as pillars in need of constant protection. Emphasis was placed on preserving trust in institutions in the face of polarisation, disinformation and the concentration of power.

    2. In the face of confrontation and short-termism, the La Toja Forum championed moderation, active listening and the search for consensus. Major challenges require stable policies, cooperation between administrations and agreements that transcend changes in government.

    3. The weakening of multilateralism and international law was a recurring theme in numerous speeches. It was argued that rules and institutions should be adapted to the new balance of power, whilst maintaining cooperation as the response to problems that transcend national borders.

    4. Europe needs to reduce critical dependencies and strengthen its industrial, technological and defence capabilities. This autonomy was envisaged through integration and cooperation, with a renewed transatlantic partnership and a more active relationship with Ibero-America.

    5. AI was presented as a tool for economic, scientific and social transformation, but also as a democratic challenge. Calls were made for accountability, oversight and the protection of rights, with differing views on the appropriate mechanisms to achieve this.

    6. Attracting researchers, improving training and linking education with business were recurring priorities. In the face of automation, the need to preserve critical thinking, facilitate the transition into the labour market and maintain learning opportunities for young people was emphasised.

    7. Growth must translate into more competitive businesses, better jobs and greater well-being. To this end, it was proposed to transform processes, support SMEs, achieve economies of scale and overcome market fragmentation, alongside agile and predictable regulation.

    8. Renewables and connectivity were identified as Spain’s strategic strengths. The challenge is to complement these with electricity grids, digital infrastructure and the capacity for implementation to attract investment and generate economic value across the country.

    9. Competitiveness and social cohesion were presented as inseparable objectives. Housing, public services and good jobs are essential if growth is to improve everyday life and strengthen confidence in democracy.

    10. Military, hybrid, border-related and organised crime threats demand well-prepared institutions and international cooperation. The need to strengthen capabilities, combat corruption and take action against the financial and logistical networks that underpin these threats was emphasised.

    Our speakers

    • Alberto Mateos

      Partner and Head of Oliver Wyman’s AI and Financial Services platform for Spain and Portugal

    • Alberto Núñez Feijóo

      President of the Partido Popular and leader of the opposition

    • Alex Romero

      Founder and CEO of Alto Intelligence

    • Alfonso Rueda

      President of the Xunta de Galicia

    • Amancio López Seijas

      President of the Fundación la Toja

    • Ana Villagomez

      Deputy Anti-Drugs Prosecutor at the Cádiz-Ceuta Provincial Public Prosecutor’s Office and Anti-Drugs Co-ordinator for the Autonomous Community of Andalusia.

    • Andrés Allamand

      Ibero-American Secretary-General

    • Antonio Garamendi

      President of the CEOE

    • Antón Costas

      President of the Spanish Economic and Social Council (CES)

    • Arancha González Laya

      Minister for Foreign Affairs (2020–21). Dean of Sciences Po

    • Belén Becerril

      Director of Política Exterior

    • Bernardino León

      Secretary of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Affairs (2004–2008) and former EU Special Envoy for the Southern Mediterranean and UN Special Envoy to Libya

    • Carlos Cuerpo

      Vicepresident of the Spanish Government

    • Carlos Díaz

      Chief of Public Affairs at the White House (2017-2021)

    • Carlos López Blanco

      President of the Organizing Committee of the Foro La Toja

    • Carme Artigas

      Senior Fellow at Harvard Belfer Center. Co-Chair UN AI Advisory Body (2023-2024)

    • David Bláquez

      Head of Public Policy at AWS for Spain and Portugal

    • Dean Ball

      Author of Hyperdimensional, Head of Strategic Futures at OpenAI and current Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation

    • Diane Coyle

      Bennett Professor of Public Policy at Cambridge University

    • Emilio Gayo

      CEO at Telefónica

    • Enrique Goñi

      President at Fundación Hermes

    • Felipe González

      President of the Spanish Government (1982-1996)

    • Fina Lladós

      President at FarmaIndustria

    • Ignacio Cembrero

      Journalist

    • Ildefonso Castro

      Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs (2017–2018)

    • Imanol Pradales

      President of Gobierno vasco

    • Jamil Anderlini

      Regional director at POLITICO Europe

    • Javier Colomina

      NATO Special Representative for the Southern Neighbourhood

    • Jordi Gual

      Vicepresident at Cercle d'Economia

    • Josep Borrell

      High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (2019–2024).
      President at CIDOB

    • Josep Maria Recasens

      CEO at Indra

    • José Ignacio Latorre

      Director at the Centre for Quantum Technologies, Singapur

    • Juan Manuel Vega

      Vice-Chair and Member of the Executive Board at AMLA

    • Kissy Chandiramani

      Second Vice-President of Ceuta

    • Louis Mosley

      Vicepresident at Palantir Europa

    • Lucía Méndez

      Journalist at El Mundo

    • Maite Rico

      Deputy director at @TheObjective

    • Mariano Rajoy

      President of the Spanish Government (2011-2018)

    • Mario Ruiz-Tagle

      CEO at Iberdrola España

    • Marta Blanco

      Chair of the CEOE’s International Relations Committee

    • Ana Torrens

      President at Deloitte Spain

    • Nuria Oliver

      Co-founder and vice-president of ELLIS (European Laboratory of Learning and Intelligent Systems).

    • Óscar Naranjo

      Former Vice-President of Colombia and former Director-General of the National Police

    • Pablo García-Berdoy

      Permanent Representative of Spain to the EU (2016-2021) and Head of Public Affairs for Europe at LLYC

    • Pedro Sánchez

      President of the Spanish Government

    • Robert D. Kaplan

      Author, senior lecturer at the University of Texas at Austin.

    • Rocío Martínez Sampere

      Economist. Vice-President of the Felipe González Foundation

    • Salvador Illa

      President of Generalitat de Catalunya

    • Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

      Leader of the democratic opposition in Belarus

    • Yolanda Gómez

      Subdirector at ABC

    WATCH AGAIN

    Watch all panel discussions and dialogues

    2026 Agenda

      • Thursday, October 1st
      • 16.00 h Official opening Welcome from:
        Amancio López. President of Fundación La Toja
        Alfonso Rueda. President of Xunta de Galicia

        Opening speech:
        Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón. President of the Spanish Government
      • Foro La Toja - Josep Piqué Award Ceremony
        presided by H.M the King                 Award-winning speech:
        Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. President of the Portuguese Republic (2016-2026)

        Official inauguration:
        H.M the King
      • 17.30 h Spanish Wine
      • 18.15 h Atlantic dialogue Robert D. Kaplan. Author, senior lecturer at the University of Texas at Austin
        Arancha González Laya. Minister for Foreign Affairs (2020–21). Dean of Sciences Po

        MODERATOR: Jamil Anderlini. Regional director at POLITICO Europe
      • 20.45 h Dinner
      • Friday, October 2nd
      • 9.00 h The Spanish economy and its future challenges Ana Torrens. President at Deloitte España
        Emilio Gayo. CEO at Telefónica
        Mario Ruiz-Tagle. CEO at Iberdrola España
        Josep Maria Recasens. CEO at Indra

        MODERATOR: Yolanda Gómez. Subdirector at ABC
      • 9.45 h Technology and democracy Dean Ball. Author of Hyperdimensional, Head of Strategic Futures at OpenAI and current Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation
        Carmen Artigas. Senior Fellow at Harvard Belfer Center. Co-Chair UN AI Advisory Body (2023-2024)
        Louis Mosley. Vicepresident at Palantir Europa

        MODERATOR: Alex Romero. Founder and CEO of Alto Intelligence
      • 10.45 h The economics of Artificial Intelligence Diane Coyle. Bennett Professor of Public Policy at Cambridge University
        Carlos Cuerpo. Vicepresident of the Spanish Government

        MODERATOR: Jordi Gual. Vicepresidente del Cercle d'Economia
      • 11.30 h

        Coffee-Break
      • 12.00 h Competitiveness and territorial cohesion Alfonso Rueda. President of the Xunta de Galicia
        Imanol Pradales. President of Gobierno Vasco
        Salvador Illa. President of Generalitat de Catalunya

        MODERATOR: Antón Costas. President of the Spanish Economic and Social Council (CES)
      • 13.00 h Spain facing a new political crossroads Mariano Rajoy. President of the Spanish Government (1982-1996)
        Felipe Gonzalez. President of the Spanish Government (2011-2018)
        MODERATOR: Lucía Méndez. Journalist at El Mundo
      • 14.30 h

        Lunch
      • 16.15 h The Spanish economy and its future challenges Fina Lladós. President at Farmaindustria
        David Bláquez. Head of Public Policy at AWS for Spain and Portugal
        Alberto Mateos. Partner and Head of Oliver Wyman’s AI and Financial Services platform for Spain and Portugal

        MODERATOR: Marta Blanco. Chair of the CEOE’s International Relations Committee
      • 17.00 h AI comes to age José Ignacio Latorre. Director at the Centre for Quantum Technologies, Singapur
        Nuria Oliver. Co-founder and vicepresident of ELLIS (European Laboratory of Learning and Intelligent Systems).

        MODERATOR: Enrique Goñi. President at Fundación Hermes
      • 18.00 h

        Coffee-break
      • 18.15 h The Ceuta crisis and the future of Spanish-Moroccan relations Bernardino León. Secretary for Foreign Affairs (2004–2008) and former EU Special Envoy for the Southern Mediterranean and UN Special Envoy to Libya
        Ildefonso Castro. Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs (2017–2018)
        Ignacio Cembrero. Journalist Kissy Chandiramani. Second Vice-President of Ceuta

        MODERATOR: Belén Becerril. Director of Política Exterior
      • 20.30 h

        Dinner
      • Saturday, October 3rd
      • 09.00 h The Ibero-American region: institutional and political challenges Andrés Allamand.Ibero-American Secretary-General
        Antonio Garamendi. President at CEOE

        MODERATOR: Rocío Martínez-Sampere. Economist. Vice-President of the Felipe González Foundation
      • 9.45 h Organized Crime: A spreading plague Óscar Naranjo. Former Vice-President of Colombia and former Director-General of the National Police
        Juan Manuel Vega. Vice-Chair and Member of the Executive Board at AMLA
        Ana Villagomez. Deputy Anti-Drugs Prosecutor at the Cádiz-Ceuta Provincial Public Prosecutor’s Office and Anti-Drugs Co-ordinator for the Autonomous Community of Andalusia

        MODERATOR: Maite Rico. Deputy director at @TheObjective
      • 10.45 h Autonomy and dependence in the strategic relationship Javier Colomina. NATO special representative for the Southern Neighbourhood.
        Carlos Díaz. Chief of Public Affairs at the White House (2017-2021)

        MODERADO POR: Pablo García-Berdoy. Permanent Representative of Spain to the EU (2016-2021) and Head of Public Affairs for Europe at LLYC
      • 11.30 h

        Coffee break
      • 12.00h Belarus: The silent resistance Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Leader for the democratic opposition in Belarus
        Josep Borrell.EU High representative for foreign affairs and security policy (2019-2024).
        President at CIDOB
      • 12.45 h Keynote speech Alberto Núñez Feijóo. President of the Partido Popular and leader of the opposition
      • 13.15 h Closing remarks Carlos López Blanco. President of the Organising Committee Foro La Toja
      • 14.00 h

        Closure lunch
    *The program may change
    GALLERY

    Gallery Foro La Toja 2026

      Central themes

      Foro Round Tables

      • A world in disarray

        This year’s theme, “A World in Disarray,” does not signify a surrender to pessimism, but rather an acknowledgment of the profound transformations we are experiencing. We are witnessing existential shifts in the geostrategic landscape, the development of cutting-edge technologies, the social and electoral behaviors of Western societies, and our economic and trade relations.

        Wherever we look, new uncertainty arises: partners and allies no longer act as such, wars drag on, major powers disregard the rules of multilateralism, the rise of authoritarian populism strains democratic institutions, and there is growing—and well-founded—fear regarding technological development devoid of safety brakes or ethical limits.

        The world—and Spain within it—is passing through a period of disorder, yet this does not imply an inevitable slide toward a worse future. The conversation we propose through the La Toja Forum – Atlantic Link reaffirms the enduring relevance of the principles that inspired Atlanticism and the need to rebuild its internal cohesion. While those political, social, and moral values ​​may require new institutional tools, they remain the best guide for navigating the uncertainties of the present.

      • The Atlantic link and its future

        Our first conversation addresses the state of the Atlantic Link—a historic alliance that was pivotal in shaping the modern world and is now facing one of its most uncertain moments. The Trump administration’s disdain—if not outright hostility—toward traditional partners has left deep wounds in the West. Nevertheless, the aggression of Putin’s Russia demonstrates that the reasons justifying the Alliance’s creation remain fully valid.

        The U.S. retrenchment is prompting allies to explore new forms of cooperation and to outline the contours of a potential new "Atlantism"—one capable of overcoming this period of bewilderment and fatalism.

      • The Spanish economy and its future challenges

        Two years ago, this Forum devoted a significant portion of its discussions to the Draghi and Letta reports regarding the urgent need to boost European competitiveness. There does not appear to have been much urgency in implementing the proposed reforms. Even so—and despite political uncertainty—Spain stands out as Europe’s star pupil in terms of economic development and job creation.

        Once again, the La Toja Forum gives the floor to leading business figures to analyze the state and outlook of the Spanish economy.

      • AI comes of age

        Artificial intelligence has moved past its technical infancy—that of the curious toy or the chatbot making amusing errors—and has entered a phase resembling adolescence: it tests the limits imposed by its creators and sometimes flouts the rules, while the institutions that ought to treat it like an adult (legal frameworks, accountability mechanisms, independent audits) are only just beginning to kick into gear.

        The question is clear: are we moving toward an AI that is held accountable under the law like an adult, or toward a state of perpetual adolescence, where it is granted increasing autonomy without being required to bear full responsibility?

      • Technology and democracy

        Just a few days ago, the leaders of major artificial intelligence platforms launched a global debate on the urgent need to oversee and set ethical boundaries for the unchecked development of AI. The call for regulation came from the very people who had traditionally rejected it as a hindrance to innovation. After years of criticism regarding European hyper-regulation and its alleged role in the continent's technological lag, a debate is now emerging in the United States concerning the role of public authorities in managing the existential risks posed by AI. Underlying this debate is yet another facet of the struggle between the US and China for global hegemony.

      • The economics of artificial intelligence

        The development of AI presents not only ethical challenges—such as democratic oversight, social impact, and military applications—but also sparks a profound debate regarding its effect on economic productivity and the social fabric. Concerns about job losses are compounded by academic discussion over whether current metrics can adequately measure the wealth generated by AI.

      • Competitiveness and territorial cohesion

        Discussions regarding Spain’s autonomous communities often seem trapped by the issue of funding; however, these regions play a crucial role in competitiveness and social cohesion—a role that extends far beyond the debate over how the services they provide are financed. The autonomous communities possess tools to stimulate industrial development, productivity, and quality employment; the question remains whether these tools are sufficient to foster...

      • Two perspectives on Spain

        The new political season includes two elections that will usher in a new era for Spain. The municipal and regional elections on May 23 and the general election—as yet unscheduled—will bring an end to a period of great turbulence, both in Spain and across much of Europe.

        This is an opportunity to look toward the future through the eyes of two former Spanish Prime Ministers. The La Toja Forum 2026 brings back one of its most highly regarded dialogues: the conversation between Felipe González and Mariano Rajoy.

      • The Ceuta crisis and the future of relations with Morocco

        The surge of migrants at the Ceuta border last July has become a top priority in Spanish political debate, driven by the exceptional hardship faced by the city's residents and the untenable situation of the thousands of migrants who remain there. This crisis involves factors that extend beyond the humanitarian dimension, touching upon our foreign policy, Europe’s immigration strategy, and emerging alliances in the Mediterranean.

      • The Ibero-American region and its institutional and political challenges

        In a few weeks, Spain will host another Ibero-American Summit at a pivotal moment for the region. Alongside traditional issues—drug trafficking, immigration, and Chinese expansion—there is now a new version of the Monroe Doctrine, in which the United States displays an unabashed and limitless drive for dominance over a hemisphere it views as its exclusive sphere of influence.

      • Organized crime: a growing scourge

        Organized crime is emerging as one of the major global challenges, even though it has not yet taken center stage in public discourse. Organized crime has gone global. The immense profits generated by drug trafficking and money laundering enable the construction of criminal empires that exceed the GDP of many countries; this allows them to employ technological tools and sophisticated corporate structures that overwhelm the operational capacity of police, judges, and prosecutors within their respective national jurisdictions.

      • Autonomy and dependence in the strategic relationship

        The instability of the international order demands a stronger Atlantic Alliance with greater deterrent capability. The pillars of that strength lie on both sides of the Atlantic. A serious conversation about the current and future role of our shared security framework requires listening carefully to developments in North America and Europe.
      RESOURCE LIBRARY
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