VI Foro La Toja Vínculo Atlántico: A meeting place for reflection and debate

Foro La Toja-Vínculo Atlántico will hold its seventh edition on October 2, 3, and 4 on Illa da Toxa, Galicia, just one month before the first anniversary of Donald Trump’s second term as President of the United States.

Since its inception, Foro La Toja has advocated for liberal democratic values and an international order based on the strength of the Atlantic bond, multilateral cooperation, the negotiated resolution of conflicts, and free trade as a driver of development and prosperity. We continue to uphold these principles, which have fostered a long period of peace and social progress across the world. Today, this commitment demands an even greater dedication to defending these values and a better understanding of the circumstances that have led us to the current situation.

The disruptive drive of Trump’s second term has surprised even those who had already anticipated a new climate of instability in international relations. The optimism that typically accompanies the beginning of a new political cycle quickly gave way to concern over the tone of the new presidency, followed by unease regarding its first decisions, and lastly, to a widespread conviction that we have entered a new and unsettling phase in transatlantic relations and the international order.

The proposed solutions to the two major conflicts of our time—the wars in Ukraine and Gaza—, far from fostering a safer and more just world, have instead contributed to a climate of heightened uncertainty, where mass displacement of civilian populations or the right of conquest are being treated as acceptable practices, overriding international law. If the United States was once the principal architect of the old liberal international order, it now appears to be to be leading efforts to redefine it through a framework of imperial spheres of influence at the expense of law and international cooperation.

The figures, policies, and approaches that have taken hold in the leadership of the world’s foremost power have significantly altered the framework that has defined international relations since the end of the World War II, prompting various actors to rapidly adjust to this new reality.

The most evident example is Europe, which has been abruptly awakened to the urgent need of taking greater responsibility for its own defence. True to its historical pattern, the European Union has demonstrated its ability to respond effectively in times of crisis. As seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, the EU has been able to swiftly reassess its priorities to adapt to emerging challenges. However, beyond commitment and increased defense spending, Europe must now design and implement the appropriate strategies to ensure its rearmament efforts are both effective and sustainable. The dramatic experience of Ukraine has served as a testing ground for the new capabilities required to ensure the continent’s defence.

The evolving dynamics of the transatlantic alliance will also play a crucial role in shaping global geopolitical balances. Some voices in Europe advocate for reassessing the strategic alliance with the United States in response to China’s commercial and technological aggressiveness. Trump’s rapprochement with Putin and his disregard for EU institutions should not serve as an excuse for Europe to lower its democratic standards in the face of China’s technological and commercial dominance. Instead, it should serve as a reason to strengthen diplomatic and economic ties with other regions in an increasingly multipolar world.

Strategic and political uncertainties are further compounded by concerns over the economic consequences of the trade war initiated by the US administration. Experience has shown that trade wars slow economic growth and generate inflation. However, in today’s world, where supply chains are more diversified than ever, such conflicts could lead to a new economic recession.

For Europe, all these changes have come amid an ongoing debate about the need to restore its economic competitiveness. While the European Union had already begun realigning its priorities to better position itself against the United States and China, Trump’s policies have only accelerated a reaction that is now more imperative than ever.

Rarely has the global conversation faced so many complex and diverse challenges at once: the future world order, growth drivers, control of raw materials, and the energy outlook are just some of the pressing issues on the table. But there is also a profound reflection on the political threats that have led to the current situation: democratic societies have proven highly vulnerable to populism, polarisation, and misinformation. Our social, emotional, and political behaviours are being deeply affected by digitalisation, and the tech oligarchs who stood beside Donald Trump at his inauguration now seem to wield greater control over our lives than the politicians to whom we entrust the management of public affairs.

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